What recent ecommerce trends tell us about holiday 2025

Discipline will define success for CPG brands this holiday season.

CommerceIQ's Q3 2025 State of Ecommerce and Prime Big Deal Days 2025 reports reveal a clear story: shoppers are still spending, but they're becoming increasingly selective. With rising ad costs, margin pressure, and inventory risks making profitability harder to protect, the winning formula has changed.

The brands that succeed this year won't be the ones that spend the most—they'll be the ones that execute precisely across pricing, media, and availability.

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Four critical ecommerce trends shaping holiday 2025

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1. Profit margins are under mounting pressure despite strong demand

Demand stayed healthy in recent months, with Q3 Ordered Product Sales climbing 9 percent year over year across Grocery, Health and Personal Care, and Toys. Yet profitability moved in the opposite direction.

Unit margins fell 2 to 3 percent year over year as brands absorbed higher input costs, tariffs, and event-driven discounting. Prime Big Deal Days confirmed this troubling trend: gross margin declined 25.5 percent year over year during the event, alongside a 44 percent increase in ad spend and rising CPCs.

The takeaway is stark: Strong demand didn't translate into strong profit in either period, signaling that higher volume won't compensate for thinner margins during holiday.

2. Rising retail media costs are delivering diminishing returns

Retail media spending continued its upward trajectory this year. In Q3, ad spend grew 22 percent year over year while CPC and ROAS stayed flat—meaning brands paid more simply to maintain visibility rather than gain efficiency.

Prime Big Deal Days intensified this pattern dramatically. ROAS dropped 102 percent on average and turned negative on Day 1, while CPC increased 55.5 percent over baseline. The message across both periods was unmistakable: Higher spend led to weaker returns.

This reinforces a critical truth: entering holiday with a "set and forget" media plan will erode margins quickly.

3. Inventory improvements can't prevent costly stockout losses

Operational performance showed encouraging signs this year. On-hand inventory rose 18.5 percent year over year and fill rates improved 13 percent to roughly 90 percent, pointing to stronger supply chain reliability heading into peak season.

However, even with more inventory available, stockout-related losses continued climbing. In Q3, revenue lost to out-of-stocks increased 13.4 percent year over year, often concentrated in top-selling SKUs in fast-moving categories like Grocery and Pet. Prime Big Deal Days reinforced this vulnerability, while some areas improved, categories such as Patio and Lawn saw major increases in out-of-stock losses.

The data makes one thing clear: Inventory accuracy and SKU-level planning will be critical to capturing holiday sales.

4. Selective shoppers are driving strategic pricing shifts

Shoppers have become notably more deliberate in recent months, transforming how brands approach pricing and promotions.

In Q3, indexed price levels fell 3.7 percent and discounts decreased 1.7 percent year over year, while traffic held at 99 percent of last year and conversion improved nearly 3 percent. The pattern is clear: consumers browsed less but converted more when the value proposition was compelling.

Prime Big Deal Days amplified this behavior. Average selling prices rose 13 percent year over year, yet discounting increased 636 percent year over year, especially on Day 1. This apparent contradiction reveals that brands are timing offers more strategically around peak demand moments rather than relying on blanket discounts.

This shift suggests shoppers will continue comparing prices and waiting for optimal buying moments during Cyber Week and throughout the holiday season.

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What this means for your holiday strategy

The combined data paints a holiday outlook defined by three key dynamics:

• Demand will hold steady, but won't surge
  Traffic and conversion trends show that shoppers will buy, but only when value is clear.
• Profit margins remain vulnerable
  Media spend is up and returns are down, requiring brands to track efficiency closely.
• Inventory execution will make or break results
  Even well-stocked brands lost revenue when key SKUs were unavailable.

The brands that connect price, media, and supply decisions in real time—adjusting continuously—will be the ones that sustain growth through December.

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4 Essential tactics for CPG brands this holiday

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Link inventory planning to campaign timing

Align PO and fill rate data with promotion calendars to avoid running out of advertised SKUs during critical selling moments.

Optimize media for profitability, not volume

With ROAS declining and CPCs rising, smart reallocation beats aggressive spending. Use AI to identify campaigns still delivering positive returns and shift budget there—even if that means pulling back from underperforming areas.

Maintain price discipline throughout the season

Shoppers reward discounting, but don't require it. Selectively discount during peak sales events but then pull back during quieter shopping periods to protect margins and avoid training customers to wait for deals.

Pace promotions to match shopper behavior

Prime Big Deal Days showed stronger performance later in the event as shoppers waited for the best offers. Apply this learning to your holiday calendar.

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Navigate holiday 2025 with CommerceIQ

Ready to explore Q3 ecommerce trends in detail? Want deeper insights from Prime Big Deal Days 2025? Learn how CommerceIQ helps brands protect margins while driving growth across Amazon, Walmart, and 1,450+ retailers.

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